The left-wing Syriza government has won
A "No" vote is an endorsement of the left-wing Syriza government's view that the austerity package attached to Greece's bail-out deal is too harsh. Leftist opponents of “austerity economics” across Europe and beyond are rejoicing, as are critics of the EU’s bureaucracy, at its having received a bloody nose.
EU governments will be furious at having to continue to deal with Alexis Tsipras, its prime minister, and Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister, whom they have come to loathe. Expect more anti-eurozone rhetoric from similar radical parties across Europe, like Spain’s Podemos
Greece will leave the eurozone
That is what the EU says, and is likely to happen.Without a deal, it will be cut off from long-term funding from the European Central Bank, and will have to default more widely on its debts. The assumption is that it will effectively devalue by printing its own currency, and start again. However, both the Greek government and some financial analysts say there is no reason why it should not default on its debts, agree a new financing deal, and stay in the euro. Although the EU will not want to agree this, it may in the end prefer it to a breach of the principle that eurozone membership is irreversible.
Greece will run out of cash
All eyes will turn to the ECB, which on Monday will have to decide whether to continue to extend its emergency financial lifeline to the Greek banks. The Greek banks are at risk because they carry a heavy exposure to their government's own debt. If the government can’t pay, and the banks go bust, then … it is not clear what happens to savers’ money.
Greece will have to find a factory to print drachmas
British firms like De La Rue, which prints 150 currencies worldwide, are believed to have been contacted with a view to providing such services. It's done in great secrecy to prevent currency speculation. The other big problem is the logistical challenges of switching a currency. All ATMs, computers and other machinery of commerce that bears the euro symbol will have to be adjusted. It could, and would, take months.
Greece’s economy will (still) be in ruins.
Many Greeks see the austerity reforms as a much-needed measure to make the country more economically dynamic. They fear that leaving the Eurozone will make Greece even more backward, and remove the one powerful check on Syriza's more radical elements. Feelings are running high on both sides.
What does it mean for the rest of us
Britain has looked on from the sidelines - but the No vote is a shot across the bows of EU leaders that they cannot take risks with public opinion in eurosceptic nations. On the other hand, Britain’s economy is at risk - as is the rest of the world’s - if the eurozone begins to melt down. EU leaders are confident it will not, but they have been wrong before.
Will tourists be affected
Foreign bank accounts are not subject to the same 60 euro withdrawal limit as Greek ones are, but cash machines are already running short, and it is hard to see how a “No” vote will make things better. Increasingly, shops and other businesses have asked for payment in cash, too, rather than by card. Tourists are likely to continue to be able to pay in euros - and indeed, will welcome them all the more.
Can I cancel my holiday
No. Tour companies will only refund holiday bookings if the Foreign Office warns against travel - currently they are just advising caution near demonstrations (against theft) and to take extra euros.
By Colin Freeman and Richard Spencer / The Telegraph
