2017 Asia Summer Forecast: Heat May Become Excessive, Dangerous In Part Of Asia

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Thursday, May 18th, 2017
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AccuWeather reported on May 17 that the summer of 2017 will feature sufficient monsoon rain in some areas and building drought and heat in others, while tropical cyclones aim for part of southeastern Asia and the Arabian Sea.

Southeastern Asia will receive both lifegiving and excessive rains due to the southwest monsoon and the threat of typhoons.

Meanwhile, excessive heat and building drought are predicted farther north, south and west of the heavy rainfall.

Heat may become excessive, dangerous in part of Asia

Higher-than-average temperatures will dominate much of Asia this summer.

A clockwise flow of sinking air, known as a high pressure system, is forecast to be a semi-permanent and strong feature near Japan this summer, according to AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

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The combination of sunshine, heat and light winds could lead to periodic air stagnation and a buildup of pollutants.

Much of the Middle East can expect dry, sunny and hot conditions, as is typically the case during the summer.
However, areas from Turkey, Cyprus and Ukraine may be hotter than average.

Typhoons to focus from Philippines to Vietnam, southern China this summer

The same high pressure setup poised to deliver heat waves from northeastern China to Japan will likely guide a number of typhoons toward the Philippines, Vietnam and southeastern China this summer.

The circulation around the high pressure area will create a fairly strong easterly flow from the central Pacific toward part of southeastern Asia.

"We expect the pattern to result in less overall impacts from tropical storms and typhoons on Japan this summer and perhaps into the early autumn, when compared to last year," according to AccuWeather Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski.

A number of significant impacts are predicted from tropical systems farther south in the western Pacific.

"The overall number of significant impacts may be similar to or perhaps higher than 2016 on the Philippines, Taiwan, southeastern China and Vietnam," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

Overall numbers of tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons are projected by AccuWeather to be close to average but slightly higher than 2016.

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During the West Pacific typhoon season, which extends through autumn, 27 tropical storms are forecast with 16 typhoons and seven super typhoons.

"Should El Niño develop quickly and become stronger than anticipated, the number of tropical storms and typhoons could be significantly higher as ocean waters in the prime development areas are much warmer than average," Kottlowski said.

El Niño is the warm phase of routine sea surface temperature fluctuations over the tropical Pacific.
Warm ocean waters are essential for tropical storm development. When waters are significantly warmer than average, there is greater potential for tropical storms to form and strengthen rapidly.

Arabian Sea to be active periodically with tropical cyclones this summer

There is the potential for a few tropical cyclones to impact the Arabian Sea.
"The unusually warm waters in the northwestern Indian Ocean can fuel a tropical cyclone or two in the Arabian Sea, especially during June and August," Nichols said.

"Thunderstorms that typically erupt near the Red Sea in the Arabian Peninsula could be quite heavy and cause isolated flash flooding, especially if tropical features interact with the region," he said.

Sufficient summer rainfall forecast for only part of India, Southeast Asia

"The interaction of the westerly flow of moisture across the Pacific with the southwest monsoon is expected to provide adequate rainfall this summer for much of India to southeastern China," Nicholls said.

Heavy monsoon rains during the summer of 2016 snapped the multi-year drought in much of the region.

The nature of the monsoon pattern this summer may not only bring needed moisture for agriculture but could also produce incidents of life-threatening flooding.

Farther north and away from the monsoon impact, some areas from eastern Kazakhstan to northwestern and north-central China to western and central Mongolia may have slightly wetter-than-average conditions.
Meanwhile, drought will linger or return in some areas.
Drought is likely to continue and may get worse in part of the southeastern India coast.
Drought may develop in parts of northwestern India and Pakistan.

"We expect drought conditions to return to much of Indonesia and Malaysia, due to developing weak El Niño conditions, combined with warm waters over the western part of the Indian Ocean," Nichols said.

The high pressure area forecast near Japan will tend to limit rainfall for much of northeastern Asia.
Drought could evolve, especially over a portion of the North China Plain and the lower part of the Yellow River basin.

The buildup of heat is likely to lead to drier-than-average conditions this summer. A drought may develop in much of Turkey.

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